Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
