Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
